A NEW opinion poll ahead of the General Election suggests that a close battle is in prospect all over Ayrshire in the final days of the campaign.

On Thursday, July 4, people in Ayrshire will head to the polls to decide who they want to become their local representative.

A new poll by More in Common has projected the outcome for each seat across the UK, and in line with previous surveys it's predicting a large majority for Labour in Westminster.

The researcher has also suggested which party is currently most likely to win in all the UK's parliamentary constituencies.

But the results of its polling suggest that the results in Ayrshire are far from a certainty.

Details have also been revealed of when a result can be expected in each of Ayrshire's four seats - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Central Ayrshire, and North Ayrshire and Arran.

 

Twenty-nine candidates are standing for election across the area's four constituencies - and according to More In Common's projections, every vote in the seat could prove crucial, making for an intense battle by all the candidates and their teams in the final week of the campaign.

All four of Ayrshire's seats have a margin of less than 5 per cent between the party defending the seat and its nearest challenger.

And More In Common's data for Ayrshire comes with a large health warning: with the close margin between the first and second parties, it says that all four Ayrshire constituencies are currently 'too close to call'. 

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Candidates:

  • Allan Dorans (SNP)
  • Martin Dowey (Conservative and Unionist Party)
  • Paul Kennedy (Liberal Democrats)
  • Andrew Russell (Reform UK)
  • Elaine Stewart (Labour)
  • Korin Matthew Vallance (Greens)
  • Corri Wilson (Alba Party)

Allan Dorans (SNP) gained the seat from the Conservative and Unionist Party in 2019.

More in Common's data predicts a Labour gain from the SNP, with a 3.5 per cent margin.

The count will take place at the Citadel Leisure Centre in Ayr, and a result is expected to be declared at around 3.30am on Friday, July 5.

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Candidates:

  • Alan Brown (SNP)
  • Jordan Cowie (Conservative and Unionist Party)
  • Bex Glen (Greens)
  • Lillian Jones (Labour)
  • William Thomson (Reform UK)
  • Ed Thornley (Liberal Democrats)

Alan Brown (SNP) has held the seat since gaining it from Labour in 2015.

More in Common's data predicts a Labour gain from the SNP, with a 3.2 per cent margin.

The Kilmarnock and Loudoun count will take place at the Galleon Centre in Kilmarnock, and a result is expected at around 2.30am on Friday, July 5.

Central Ayrshire

Candidates: 

  • Kevin Blades (Reform UK)
  • Elaine Ford (Liberal Democrats)
  • Alan Gemmell (Labour)
  • Tom Kerr (Greens)
  • Allan MacMillan (Social Democratic Party)
  • Louise McDaid (Socialist Labour Party)
  • Annie McIndoe (SNP)
  • David Rocks (Conservative and Unionist Party)

Phillippa Whitford (SNP) has held the seat since gaining from Labour in 2015. However, Dr Whitford will not be standing this year.

More in Common's data predicts a Labour gain from the SNP, with a 2.4 per cent margin.

The count will take place at the Citadel Leisure Centre in Ayr, alongside the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock votes, and a result is expected at around 4am on Friday, July 5.

North Ayrshire and Arran

Candidates: 

  • Irene Campbell (Labour)
  • Gillian Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats)
  • Todd Ferguson (Conservative and Unionist)
  • Ian Charles Gibson (Social Democratic Party)
  • Patricia Gibson (SNP)
  • Mike Mann (Reform UK)
  • James McDaid (Socialist Labour Party)
  • Cara McKee (Greens)

Patricia Gibson (SNP) has held the seat since gaining it from Labour in 2015.

More in Common's data predicts an SNP hold, with a 0.1 per cent margin.

The votes will be counted at St Matthew's Academy in Saltcoats, and a result is expected to be declared at around 3.30am on Friday, July 5.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Candidates:

  • Dominic Ashmole (Greens)
  • Drummond Begg (Liberal Democrat)
  • Daniel Coleman (Labour)
  • Gareth Kirk (Scottish Family Party)
  • David Kirkwood (Reform UK)
  • Kim Marshall (SNP)
  • David Mundell (Conservative and Unionist)

David Mundell (Conservative and Unionist) has held the seat, which includes the Upper Nithsdale communities of Sanquhar, Kirkconnel and Kelloholm, since it was created in 2005.

More in Common's data predicts a Conservative and Unionist hold with a 16.9 per cent margin.

The result is expected at around 3.30am on Friday, July 5.

According to More In Common's research, Labour is expected to have a majority of around 162, with between 395 and 416 seats across the UK.

The Conservatives are expected to hold just 155 seats, while the Liberal Democrats are expected to return to the level of seats they held in the 2000s, before they entered a coalition with the Conservatives.

 

More In Common's projections suggest the SNP is on course to win 18 seats and indicate Labour will win around 33 seats north of the border.

The researcher is using data gathered betwee May 22 and June 17.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, said: "The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in.

"Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives' position instead appears to be getting worse, and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.

Labour on the other hand look set to inherit a historic majority while still remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate. While creating such a broad electoral coalition is a good problem to have in the short term, it points to potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes, especially when electoral cynicism is so high."